Best bets on Week 2 NFL games
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/15/17
Week 2 of the NFL season is here, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Mike Clay and Erin Rynning) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter, which we'll release in a separate file on Saturday), included together in one handy file.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent pick Tennessee
Steele: Jacksonville has actually won the last three meetings at home versus the Titans. Last year they had a 415-264 yard edge in the 38-17 win. Jacksonville also has the stronger defense (10 sacks last week), led by free-agent addition Calais Campbell. Tennessee has the edge at quarterback and is in more of a must-win situation after last week's loss. Tennessee is 0-2-1 ATS in the rare role of away favorite the last four years.
ATS pick: Pass
Rynning: It was a huge win for the Jaguars last week as their offensive line played very well in slowing down a dangerous Houston Texans front; the line will be hard pressed to reach that level week in and week out. They did accomplish their preferred style of play in 2017 with 39 rushes and just 21 passes by Blake Bortles. This pattern will likely continue, as No. 1 receiver Allen Robinson is out for the year with an ACL injury. In Week 1 the Titans totally moved away from their style, throwing the ball 41 times to just 21 carries on the ground. Look for a return to the ground game this week, especially with the matchup against this up-and-coming Jaguars secondary.
Pick: Under 42.5
Sharp: When CG Technology released offseason lines, the Titans were laying one point in this spot. In fact, the line opened as a pick 'em in most sportsbooks before now moving to -2. In Week 1, the Jaguars engaged the Houston Texans with a simplistic offensive game plan, and one would think that the Titans should be able to stop it, but I'm still not sold right now that Marcus Mariota will be able to deliver efficiently on offense. I would like to see the Titans return to the run game with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry this week, and then let Mariota pass with the run established, rather than again attempting the pass-first approach that we saw in the second half of the Titans' opener (92.9 percent of offensive plays).
ATS pick: Pass
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-8)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent pick Baltimore
Steele: Baltimore is 9-1 ATS versus its division and just shut out Cincinnati 20-0 on the road last week. This is DeShone Kizer's first NFL road start, and the Browns needed a touchdown with 3:36 left to cover versus Pittsburgh. The Ravens were conservative with quarterback Joe Flacco last week, as he was just 9-of-17 for 121 yards in his first game back after missing the preseason. I like the Ravens to win here, but they lack explosiveness and are laying more than a touchdown. The line is too high for me.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: The Browns did an admirable job last week in limiting the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to a 39 percent success rate and only 14 first downs, but I suspect Ben Roethlisberger's road struggles and Le'Veon Bell not taking part in any offseason activities had a big part in that. DeShone Kizer will likely be on the ground a lot in Baltimore (5.0 sacks in the opener for the Ravens defense) in what should be a tight, defensive ball game.
ATS pick: Pass
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)
Total: 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent pick Carolina
Steele: The Panthers delivered a dominating win for me on the road last week at San Francisco, despite Cam Newton looking a bit rusty from offseason surgery. I rate the Panthers in the top eight of the NFL and they will more resemble the 2015 Super Bowl squad, which went 11-5 ATS and won their home games by a 34-18 average. Buffalo is a bottom-eight team and all they did last week was beat the worst team in football at home by only nine. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott was the Carolina defensive coordinator the last six years, but does not have the personnel to stay in this one. This is one of my top four selections this week.
ATS pick: Carolina
Rynning: It's certainly arguable who owns the insider edge, as new Bills head coach Sean McDermott challenges the team where he was formerly defensive coordinator for six years. I lean to McDermott with an advantage into understanding a rusty Cam Newton and this Panthers offense. The Bills ran all over the Jets last week, however the task will be much tougher against this Panthers front that held the 49ers to 217 yards last week.
Pick: Under 43 and lean Bills +7.5 (-120)
Sharp: Carolina completely snuffed out the San Francisco 49ers run game last week, holding them to 3.4 yards per carry and a 27 percent success rate. That forced the 49ers to move from running on 50 percent of early downs in the first quarter to 78 percent passing over the game's final three quarters. That won't happen to the run-determined Bills, who were the fourth-most run heavy team last week (only to be outdone by the Panthers, who were third).
ATS pick: Pass
New England Patriots (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints
Total: 56
PickCenter public consensus pick: 80 percent pick New Orleans
Still in the hunt in your Eliminator contests following Week 1? Here are the top options to lock in as your Week 2 pick, including one of the best matchups we'll see all season.
Steele: While the Saints are just 6-13-1 ATS as a home favorite the last three years, they are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home 'dog with outright upsets of Carolina, Atlanta and Seattle. New England was 4-12 as an away favorite from 2013-15 but turned that around last year going 6-1 ATS and winning all seven outright by 14 points per game (only one win by less than 11). Belichick is 10-2 ATS off a straight-up loss since 2012, and I can't imagine this team opening up 0-2. The Saints allowed the Vikings to gain 470 yards and are playing on a short week, while the Patriots have extra time to prep off a Thursday game.
ATS pick: New England
Sharp: It will be fascinating to see if the Patriots adjust their offensive strategy and fall back to their higher-efficiency passing attack, or if they stick with their deep-passing, boom-or- bust offense. Tom Brady completed just 16 passes and recorded a 70.0 passer rating in Week 1's loss. The deeper dropbacks also resulted in a higher sack rate. Meanwhile, the Saints will hope to find a disorganized Patriots defense after producing just 3.9 yards per play in the first half against a very stingy Minnesota Vikings defense. New Orleans is on a short week -- against Bill Belichick off a loss and with extra time to prepare -- so it will be interesting if they can slow the Patriots.
ATS pick: Pass
Arizona Cardinals (-7) at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent pick Arizona
Steele: I had Arizona as one of the most improved teams in the NFL this year, as they had a top-10 offense and defense, and led Detroit 17-9 last week. However, they then allowed 26 straight points and lost on the road. The Colts without Andrew Luck may challenge the Jets for the title of worst team in the NFL and were routed by the Rams 46-9 in Week 1. The Colts were No. 30 on defense last year and don't look any better, but Arizona will be without its top offensive player in running back David Johnson. The Cardinals must win by more than a touchdown and Indianapolis is 10-2 as a home 'dog.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: Larry Fitzgerald is aging and the rest of the receiving corps lack health and/or talent, so I legitimately thought there was a chance David Johnson would lead the team in receiving yardage. In Week 1, the Cardinals led the Lions through three quarters, and David Johnson led the team in receiving yards, but it turned sour when the running back was lost for the season. The Cardinals failed to do anything in the fourth quarter, gaining just 5.1 yards per pass and were entirely unable to run the ball. The Colts looked horrendous on the road last week, but they could find themselves in a much tighter game on Sunday.
Lean: Indianapolis +7
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent pick Kansas City
Steele: Both teams earned impressive road wins last week. The Chiefs were lucky to only be trailing 17-7 when they took over at their own 8-yard line with 2:47 left in the half. They had been outgained 222-88 to that point. After that, Kansas City had a 449-149 yard edge as Alex Smith had an impressive 368 pass yards. This game has to be special to Andy Reid, as Reid has faced his old team just once and won that 26-16 as a 'dog. Philadelphia did have 356-264 yard edge at Washington in Week 1, but this is their second straight road game and Kansas City is much stronger than the Redskins.
ATS pick: Kansas City
Sharp: Last week, Carson Wentz did not get hung up on trying to feed Alshon Jeffery, as he spread the ball around to Nelson Agholor, Zach Ertz and Darren Sproles, targeting each 8 times. That's a sign of a quarterback more willing to take what the defense gives him. I think Wentz will be passing early and often (67.2 percent passing plays through three quarters last week), as I don't expect the Eagles run game to hit its stride against the Chiefs. Meanwhile, Andy Reid has had ample time to prepare for his former team, whose weakness is in the secondary. If Reid is smart, he won't have Alex Smith ratchet it back down, instead continuing to test the weakness of the Eagles defense.
ATS pick: Pass
Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent pick Minnesota
Steele: I will wait until I see Le'Veon Bell at full strength before I start backing the Steelers again. Pittsburgh led by 11 last week before allowing a 3-yard touchdown pass with 3:36 left in the game against Cleveland. Pittsburgh only had 35 yards rushing and will take on a much tougher defense here. Sam Bradford threw for 346 yards at home versus the Saints' weak defense and now takes on a Steelers unit that was No. 12 in total defense at Heinz Field.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: The entirety of the Steelers offense looked poor and out of sync last week in Cleveland. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked just once all game, but he also passed for only 7.3 yards per attempt, including just 5.5 yards per attempt on third down. The Steelers received no support in the run game, and that will be a problem if they don't get back on track in Pittsburgh, as this Mike Zimmer-led Vikings defense has a ton of familiarity with the Steelers (Zimmer is the former Bengals coordinator). I expect the Steelers defensive line to test the rebuilt Vikings offensive front, leading to shorter dropbacks and faster passes from Sam Bradford than what he delivered at home against the Saints defense.
ATS pick: Pass
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent pick Tampa Bay
Steele: I was on the Bears last week and they nearly got the outright upset, as they had a first-and-goal at the 5-yard line trailing by six, but failed to score. Chicago has an edge with a game under its belt and with Tampa's opener being postponed. Tampa is a poor 2-8 ATS as a home favorite since 2013. Chicago is my No. 1 most improved team and I look for them to have a solid spread record, at least for the first five weeks.
ATS pick: Chicago
Sharp: Thanks to a spectacular game from rookie running back Tarik Cohen, the Bears were able to record more first downs than the Falcons and made the same number of trips to the red zone. However, all was not great in Chicago. They allowed 10.7 yards per attempt to Matt Ryan (second best in the NFL last week), along with a 116 passer rating and a 50 percent success rate. On the other side of the ball, the Bears relied entirely on Cohen, Jordan Howard and Zach Miller to win this game. It should be an easy game plan for the Buccaneers defense to prep for.
Lean: Tampa Bay -7
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-4)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent pick Miami
Steele: The Dolphins didn't play in Week 1 due to Hurricane Irma and the Chargers are playing on a short week. Last year in this matchup the Chargers led in the fourth quarter, but Philip Rivers had four interceptions including a 60-yard pick-six with 1:01 left giving the Dolphins the win. Jay Cutler gets his first start for Miami, but the Dolphins were just No. 24 on offense and No. 29 on defense last year. The Chargers are the stronger team, have a game under their belt and are coming off a loss. I like them to cover this spread.
ATS pick: Los Angeles
Sharp: I was a little surprised by the Chargers' ineffectiveness running the ball against the Broncos, but Denver kept eight or more defenders in the box on nearly 63 percent of Los Angeles' non-red zone carries, so that possibly explains that lack of efficiency. With the Dolphins staying on the West Coast for two weeks, they have a slight bump in camaraderie and practice time. I don't yet know that the Chargers' home stadium is worthy of the standard home field advantage, and with the Dolphins local to the stadium longer than the Chargers have been, there is minimal disadvantage for Miami.
ATS pick: Miami +4
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (-13.5)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent pick Oakland
Steele: I was impressed with the Raiders' road win at Tennessee as Marshawn Lynch rushed for 76 yards with 4.2 yards per carry. Everyone has anointed the Jets as the weakest team in the NFL, including myself. They took on a bottom-level Bills team last week and were outgained 408-214. They travel a second straight week and take a step up in competition. Oakland has a couple of big road games on deck, but has not been a double-digit favorite in over 10 years. Oakland should have no trouble winning the game, but this is too many points to lay.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: It's extremely difficult to complete 26 passes in the NFL and not clear 190 passing yards, but that is what the Jets did last week, as Josh McCown averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt, recorded just two passes gaining 20-plus yards and threw just one pass over 15 yards in the air. As thin as some elements of this Raiders defense is, they should be able to game plan for this Jets offense and limit their offensive production. At that point, it's up to the Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Marshawn Lynch to determine how many points to put up.
ATS pick: Pass
Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent pick Los Angeles
Steele: New Rams head coach Sean McVay was the Washington offensive coordinator the last three years while linebackers coach Joe Barry was the defensive coordinator. Wade Phillips is the new defensive coordinator and makes an impact wherever he goes and the offense with Jared Goff looks much stronger. This game opened last week as a pick-em in Vegas, but after last week's results, the Redskins are the 'dog, giving them some value here. But it's still not enough points for me to hop on board.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: The storyline of new head coach Sean McVay leading the Rams to a victory over his former offense would be a nice narrative, but I think this game is extremely difficult to forecast. The Redskins' run game was completely shut down (3.8 YPA), and the team had to resort to an extremely pass heavy attack (72 percent, including 85 percent in the second half, with 28 passing attempts and five rushes). It's no surprise that Kirk Cousins struggled against a stout front-seven. Washington will try to establish the run, but that will be easier said than done. Meanwhile, I'm down on the Redskins defense, but it's hard to continue making excuses for Todd Gurley and the Rams' run game. Lost in the final score was Gurley averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. The prime production was from Jared Goff (against a terrible Colts defense) and the Rams defense, which returned multiple touchdowns.
Lean: Washington +3
Rynning: I recommended playing against the Redskins a week ago, and the Eagles garnered a fairly comfortable 30-17 win. In that game the Redskins showed many weaknesses I expect to continue, including the lack of running game and overall offense with just 264 yards. Meanwhile, though the Rams weren't quite as good as their 46-9 demolishing of the Indianapolis Colts would indicate, this is a much improved club. The Rams gain an edge with last year's Redskins offensive coordinator Sean McVay now their new head coach. Importantly, defensive dominator Aaron Donald is expected to return this week, strengthening the Rams defense.
Pick: Rams -2.5
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent pick Dallas
Steele: Dallas dominated a top-notch Giants team along the line of scrimmage last week with a commanding 392-233 yard edge. Denver has one of the best home-field edges in the NFL and they led San Diego 24-7 but had to hang on at the end. Trevor Siemian had 219 yards passing and made good decisions for most of the game. Dallas is off a 19-3 win over the Giants with Monday night on deck. While the Cowboys have more talent, Denver could grab the outright home win, so I'm passing here.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: Want to beat the Broncos? Don't pass on them, run on them. Fortunately for Dallas, they have a running back capable of dominating. Last week, the Broncos loaded the box on Chargers' run game, and they'll have to replicate that strategy on Sunday to slow down Ezekiel Elliott. I believe the team that wins that battle wins this game, but I also believe the Cowboys defense is not nearly as strong as they exhibited at home against a weakened New York Giants team.
Play: Broncos (wait for +3, otherwise buy to +3)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-14)
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 77 percent pick Seattle
Steele: Seattle made some solid offseason additions to the defense and last week shut out the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau for the first half. Green Bay's first touchdown came on a 6-yard "drive" after recovering a Russell Wilson fumble. It's tough to lay double digits in the NFL, but Pete Carroll's presence makes me feel a little more comfortable. They are 10-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite and 20-10-1 ATS off a loss since Week 11 of 2013. Seattle is my pick to win the NFC this year and the 49ers are the weakest NFC team. Add in the 12th Man in Seattle's only home game in September and the focus will ensure that the talent level prevails.
ATS pick: Seattle
Sharp: The 49ers did not impress against a stingy Panthers defense. That said, if they couldn't generate better than 3.4 yards per carry at home against Carolina, it's hard to envision them doing any better in Seattle against a much stronger defensive line. Kyle Shanahan completely abandoned the run at home, but he can't make that mistake in Seattle, or Brian Hoyer could be destroyed by the Seahawks pass rush with Seattle in search of its first win. I expect the Shanahan's creativity to be on display, but the Seahawks saw a lot of those tricks in the playoffs last year when Shanahan knocked them out. The lone hope for the 49ers is a strong pass rush against the Seahawks poor offensive line. In the absence of that pass rush, this one could get ugly.
ATS pick: Pass
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN INSIDER
9/15/17
Week 2 of the NFL season is here, and ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts (Phil Steele, Warren Sharp, Mike Clay and Erin Rynning) have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the Sunday nighter, which we'll release in a separate file on Saturday), included together in one handy file.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent pick Tennessee
Steele: Jacksonville has actually won the last three meetings at home versus the Titans. Last year they had a 415-264 yard edge in the 38-17 win. Jacksonville also has the stronger defense (10 sacks last week), led by free-agent addition Calais Campbell. Tennessee has the edge at quarterback and is in more of a must-win situation after last week's loss. Tennessee is 0-2-1 ATS in the rare role of away favorite the last four years.
ATS pick: Pass
Rynning: It was a huge win for the Jaguars last week as their offensive line played very well in slowing down a dangerous Houston Texans front; the line will be hard pressed to reach that level week in and week out. They did accomplish their preferred style of play in 2017 with 39 rushes and just 21 passes by Blake Bortles. This pattern will likely continue, as No. 1 receiver Allen Robinson is out for the year with an ACL injury. In Week 1 the Titans totally moved away from their style, throwing the ball 41 times to just 21 carries on the ground. Look for a return to the ground game this week, especially with the matchup against this up-and-coming Jaguars secondary.
Pick: Under 42.5
Sharp: When CG Technology released offseason lines, the Titans were laying one point in this spot. In fact, the line opened as a pick 'em in most sportsbooks before now moving to -2. In Week 1, the Jaguars engaged the Houston Texans with a simplistic offensive game plan, and one would think that the Titans should be able to stop it, but I'm still not sold right now that Marcus Mariota will be able to deliver efficiently on offense. I would like to see the Titans return to the run game with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry this week, and then let Mariota pass with the run established, rather than again attempting the pass-first approach that we saw in the second half of the Titans' opener (92.9 percent of offensive plays).
ATS pick: Pass
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-8)
Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent pick Baltimore
Steele: Baltimore is 9-1 ATS versus its division and just shut out Cincinnati 20-0 on the road last week. This is DeShone Kizer's first NFL road start, and the Browns needed a touchdown with 3:36 left to cover versus Pittsburgh. The Ravens were conservative with quarterback Joe Flacco last week, as he was just 9-of-17 for 121 yards in his first game back after missing the preseason. I like the Ravens to win here, but they lack explosiveness and are laying more than a touchdown. The line is too high for me.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: The Browns did an admirable job last week in limiting the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to a 39 percent success rate and only 14 first downs, but I suspect Ben Roethlisberger's road struggles and Le'Veon Bell not taking part in any offseason activities had a big part in that. DeShone Kizer will likely be on the ground a lot in Baltimore (5.0 sacks in the opener for the Ravens defense) in what should be a tight, defensive ball game.
ATS pick: Pass
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)
Total: 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent pick Carolina
Steele: The Panthers delivered a dominating win for me on the road last week at San Francisco, despite Cam Newton looking a bit rusty from offseason surgery. I rate the Panthers in the top eight of the NFL and they will more resemble the 2015 Super Bowl squad, which went 11-5 ATS and won their home games by a 34-18 average. Buffalo is a bottom-eight team and all they did last week was beat the worst team in football at home by only nine. Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott was the Carolina defensive coordinator the last six years, but does not have the personnel to stay in this one. This is one of my top four selections this week.
ATS pick: Carolina
Rynning: It's certainly arguable who owns the insider edge, as new Bills head coach Sean McDermott challenges the team where he was formerly defensive coordinator for six years. I lean to McDermott with an advantage into understanding a rusty Cam Newton and this Panthers offense. The Bills ran all over the Jets last week, however the task will be much tougher against this Panthers front that held the 49ers to 217 yards last week.
Pick: Under 43 and lean Bills +7.5 (-120)
Sharp: Carolina completely snuffed out the San Francisco 49ers run game last week, holding them to 3.4 yards per carry and a 27 percent success rate. That forced the 49ers to move from running on 50 percent of early downs in the first quarter to 78 percent passing over the game's final three quarters. That won't happen to the run-determined Bills, who were the fourth-most run heavy team last week (only to be outdone by the Panthers, who were third).
ATS pick: Pass
New England Patriots (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints
Total: 56
PickCenter public consensus pick: 80 percent pick New Orleans
Still in the hunt in your Eliminator contests following Week 1? Here are the top options to lock in as your Week 2 pick, including one of the best matchups we'll see all season.
Steele: While the Saints are just 6-13-1 ATS as a home favorite the last three years, they are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home 'dog with outright upsets of Carolina, Atlanta and Seattle. New England was 4-12 as an away favorite from 2013-15 but turned that around last year going 6-1 ATS and winning all seven outright by 14 points per game (only one win by less than 11). Belichick is 10-2 ATS off a straight-up loss since 2012, and I can't imagine this team opening up 0-2. The Saints allowed the Vikings to gain 470 yards and are playing on a short week, while the Patriots have extra time to prep off a Thursday game.
ATS pick: New England
Sharp: It will be fascinating to see if the Patriots adjust their offensive strategy and fall back to their higher-efficiency passing attack, or if they stick with their deep-passing, boom-or- bust offense. Tom Brady completed just 16 passes and recorded a 70.0 passer rating in Week 1's loss. The deeper dropbacks also resulted in a higher sack rate. Meanwhile, the Saints will hope to find a disorganized Patriots defense after producing just 3.9 yards per play in the first half against a very stingy Minnesota Vikings defense. New Orleans is on a short week -- against Bill Belichick off a loss and with extra time to prepare -- so it will be interesting if they can slow the Patriots.
ATS pick: Pass
Arizona Cardinals (-7) at Indianapolis Colts
Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent pick Arizona
Steele: I had Arizona as one of the most improved teams in the NFL this year, as they had a top-10 offense and defense, and led Detroit 17-9 last week. However, they then allowed 26 straight points and lost on the road. The Colts without Andrew Luck may challenge the Jets for the title of worst team in the NFL and were routed by the Rams 46-9 in Week 1. The Colts were No. 30 on defense last year and don't look any better, but Arizona will be without its top offensive player in running back David Johnson. The Cardinals must win by more than a touchdown and Indianapolis is 10-2 as a home 'dog.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: Larry Fitzgerald is aging and the rest of the receiving corps lack health and/or talent, so I legitimately thought there was a chance David Johnson would lead the team in receiving yardage. In Week 1, the Cardinals led the Lions through three quarters, and David Johnson led the team in receiving yards, but it turned sour when the running back was lost for the season. The Cardinals failed to do anything in the fourth quarter, gaining just 5.1 yards per pass and were entirely unable to run the ball. The Colts looked horrendous on the road last week, but they could find themselves in a much tighter game on Sunday.
Lean: Indianapolis +7
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent pick Kansas City
Steele: Both teams earned impressive road wins last week. The Chiefs were lucky to only be trailing 17-7 when they took over at their own 8-yard line with 2:47 left in the half. They had been outgained 222-88 to that point. After that, Kansas City had a 449-149 yard edge as Alex Smith had an impressive 368 pass yards. This game has to be special to Andy Reid, as Reid has faced his old team just once and won that 26-16 as a 'dog. Philadelphia did have 356-264 yard edge at Washington in Week 1, but this is their second straight road game and Kansas City is much stronger than the Redskins.
ATS pick: Kansas City
Sharp: Last week, Carson Wentz did not get hung up on trying to feed Alshon Jeffery, as he spread the ball around to Nelson Agholor, Zach Ertz and Darren Sproles, targeting each 8 times. That's a sign of a quarterback more willing to take what the defense gives him. I think Wentz will be passing early and often (67.2 percent passing plays through three quarters last week), as I don't expect the Eagles run game to hit its stride against the Chiefs. Meanwhile, Andy Reid has had ample time to prepare for his former team, whose weakness is in the secondary. If Reid is smart, he won't have Alex Smith ratchet it back down, instead continuing to test the weakness of the Eagles defense.
ATS pick: Pass
Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent pick Minnesota
Steele: I will wait until I see Le'Veon Bell at full strength before I start backing the Steelers again. Pittsburgh led by 11 last week before allowing a 3-yard touchdown pass with 3:36 left in the game against Cleveland. Pittsburgh only had 35 yards rushing and will take on a much tougher defense here. Sam Bradford threw for 346 yards at home versus the Saints' weak defense and now takes on a Steelers unit that was No. 12 in total defense at Heinz Field.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: The entirety of the Steelers offense looked poor and out of sync last week in Cleveland. Ben Roethlisberger was sacked just once all game, but he also passed for only 7.3 yards per attempt, including just 5.5 yards per attempt on third down. The Steelers received no support in the run game, and that will be a problem if they don't get back on track in Pittsburgh, as this Mike Zimmer-led Vikings defense has a ton of familiarity with the Steelers (Zimmer is the former Bengals coordinator). I expect the Steelers defensive line to test the rebuilt Vikings offensive front, leading to shorter dropbacks and faster passes from Sam Bradford than what he delivered at home against the Saints defense.
ATS pick: Pass
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 62 percent pick Tampa Bay
Steele: I was on the Bears last week and they nearly got the outright upset, as they had a first-and-goal at the 5-yard line trailing by six, but failed to score. Chicago has an edge with a game under its belt and with Tampa's opener being postponed. Tampa is a poor 2-8 ATS as a home favorite since 2013. Chicago is my No. 1 most improved team and I look for them to have a solid spread record, at least for the first five weeks.
ATS pick: Chicago
Sharp: Thanks to a spectacular game from rookie running back Tarik Cohen, the Bears were able to record more first downs than the Falcons and made the same number of trips to the red zone. However, all was not great in Chicago. They allowed 10.7 yards per attempt to Matt Ryan (second best in the NFL last week), along with a 116 passer rating and a 50 percent success rate. On the other side of the ball, the Bears relied entirely on Cohen, Jordan Howard and Zach Miller to win this game. It should be an easy game plan for the Buccaneers defense to prep for.
Lean: Tampa Bay -7
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers (-4)
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent pick Miami
Steele: The Dolphins didn't play in Week 1 due to Hurricane Irma and the Chargers are playing on a short week. Last year in this matchup the Chargers led in the fourth quarter, but Philip Rivers had four interceptions including a 60-yard pick-six with 1:01 left giving the Dolphins the win. Jay Cutler gets his first start for Miami, but the Dolphins were just No. 24 on offense and No. 29 on defense last year. The Chargers are the stronger team, have a game under their belt and are coming off a loss. I like them to cover this spread.
ATS pick: Los Angeles
Sharp: I was a little surprised by the Chargers' ineffectiveness running the ball against the Broncos, but Denver kept eight or more defenders in the box on nearly 63 percent of Los Angeles' non-red zone carries, so that possibly explains that lack of efficiency. With the Dolphins staying on the West Coast for two weeks, they have a slight bump in camaraderie and practice time. I don't yet know that the Chargers' home stadium is worthy of the standard home field advantage, and with the Dolphins local to the stadium longer than the Chargers have been, there is minimal disadvantage for Miami.
ATS pick: Miami +4
New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (-13.5)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent pick Oakland
Steele: I was impressed with the Raiders' road win at Tennessee as Marshawn Lynch rushed for 76 yards with 4.2 yards per carry. Everyone has anointed the Jets as the weakest team in the NFL, including myself. They took on a bottom-level Bills team last week and were outgained 408-214. They travel a second straight week and take a step up in competition. Oakland has a couple of big road games on deck, but has not been a double-digit favorite in over 10 years. Oakland should have no trouble winning the game, but this is too many points to lay.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: It's extremely difficult to complete 26 passes in the NFL and not clear 190 passing yards, but that is what the Jets did last week, as Josh McCown averaged just 4.8 yards per attempt, recorded just two passes gaining 20-plus yards and threw just one pass over 15 yards in the air. As thin as some elements of this Raiders defense is, they should be able to game plan for this Jets offense and limit their offensive production. At that point, it's up to the Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree and Marshawn Lynch to determine how many points to put up.
ATS pick: Pass
Washington Redskins at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent pick Los Angeles
Steele: New Rams head coach Sean McVay was the Washington offensive coordinator the last three years while linebackers coach Joe Barry was the defensive coordinator. Wade Phillips is the new defensive coordinator and makes an impact wherever he goes and the offense with Jared Goff looks much stronger. This game opened last week as a pick-em in Vegas, but after last week's results, the Redskins are the 'dog, giving them some value here. But it's still not enough points for me to hop on board.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: The storyline of new head coach Sean McVay leading the Rams to a victory over his former offense would be a nice narrative, but I think this game is extremely difficult to forecast. The Redskins' run game was completely shut down (3.8 YPA), and the team had to resort to an extremely pass heavy attack (72 percent, including 85 percent in the second half, with 28 passing attempts and five rushes). It's no surprise that Kirk Cousins struggled against a stout front-seven. Washington will try to establish the run, but that will be easier said than done. Meanwhile, I'm down on the Redskins defense, but it's hard to continue making excuses for Todd Gurley and the Rams' run game. Lost in the final score was Gurley averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. The prime production was from Jared Goff (against a terrible Colts defense) and the Rams defense, which returned multiple touchdowns.
Lean: Washington +3
Rynning: I recommended playing against the Redskins a week ago, and the Eagles garnered a fairly comfortable 30-17 win. In that game the Redskins showed many weaknesses I expect to continue, including the lack of running game and overall offense with just 264 yards. Meanwhile, though the Rams weren't quite as good as their 46-9 demolishing of the Indianapolis Colts would indicate, this is a much improved club. The Rams gain an edge with last year's Redskins offensive coordinator Sean McVay now their new head coach. Importantly, defensive dominator Aaron Donald is expected to return this week, strengthening the Rams defense.
Pick: Rams -2.5
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent pick Dallas
Steele: Dallas dominated a top-notch Giants team along the line of scrimmage last week with a commanding 392-233 yard edge. Denver has one of the best home-field edges in the NFL and they led San Diego 24-7 but had to hang on at the end. Trevor Siemian had 219 yards passing and made good decisions for most of the game. Dallas is off a 19-3 win over the Giants with Monday night on deck. While the Cowboys have more talent, Denver could grab the outright home win, so I'm passing here.
ATS pick: Pass
Sharp: Want to beat the Broncos? Don't pass on them, run on them. Fortunately for Dallas, they have a running back capable of dominating. Last week, the Broncos loaded the box on Chargers' run game, and they'll have to replicate that strategy on Sunday to slow down Ezekiel Elliott. I believe the team that wins that battle wins this game, but I also believe the Cowboys defense is not nearly as strong as they exhibited at home against a weakened New York Giants team.
Play: Broncos (wait for +3, otherwise buy to +3)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-14)
Total: 41
PickCenter public consensus pick: 77 percent pick Seattle
Steele: Seattle made some solid offseason additions to the defense and last week shut out the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau for the first half. Green Bay's first touchdown came on a 6-yard "drive" after recovering a Russell Wilson fumble. It's tough to lay double digits in the NFL, but Pete Carroll's presence makes me feel a little more comfortable. They are 10-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite and 20-10-1 ATS off a loss since Week 11 of 2013. Seattle is my pick to win the NFC this year and the 49ers are the weakest NFC team. Add in the 12th Man in Seattle's only home game in September and the focus will ensure that the talent level prevails.
ATS pick: Seattle
Sharp: The 49ers did not impress against a stingy Panthers defense. That said, if they couldn't generate better than 3.4 yards per carry at home against Carolina, it's hard to envision them doing any better in Seattle against a much stronger defensive line. Kyle Shanahan completely abandoned the run at home, but he can't make that mistake in Seattle, or Brian Hoyer could be destroyed by the Seahawks pass rush with Seattle in search of its first win. I expect the Shanahan's creativity to be on display, but the Seahawks saw a lot of those tricks in the playoffs last year when Shanahan knocked them out. The lone hope for the 49ers is a strong pass rush against the Seahawks poor offensive line. In the absence of that pass rush, this one could get ugly.
ATS pick: Pass
